Sun, Mar 15, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 1, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 020 | 113 | 139 |
| NYR | 112 | 012 | 110 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:44NYRJames SheppardAssists: Dominic Moore, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 8:37NYRMatt HunwickGWGAssists: Dominic Moore, Jesper Fast · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 10:11FLABrandon PirriAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:09FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36NYRCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:38NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P3 11:19FLADave Bolland: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:25NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bolland – Hayes7:47
xG 0.98–0.10 (91%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:10
xG 1.06–0.28 (79%)attempts 26–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bjugstad4:22
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Upshall6:39
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad17:11
xG 1.26–0.59 (68%)attempts 33–14goals 1–1
- Kampfer – Kulikov15:13
xG 0.94–0.34 (73%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson12:49
xG 0.93–0.70 (57%)attempts 29–13goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stepan – Kreider12:20
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Hagelin – Hayes2:18
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello7:39
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Moore – Sheppard – Fast8:33
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 9–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Girardi4:31
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Yandle9:49
xG 0.84–1.00 (46%)attempts 13–23goals 1–0
- Boyle – McDonagh2:08
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).