Sun, Mar 15, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 112 | 08 | 01 | 0 | 128 |
| OTT | 08 | 110 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:19OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P2 12:12PHIJakub VoracekUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 5. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 6. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:21OTTMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:20PHIJakub Voracek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:07OTTAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:27PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
- P2 19:26PHIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 9:35OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P3 9:35PHIZac Rinaldo: Holding2 min
- P3 12:06OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier9:09
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn12:29
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- White – Rinaldo – Raffl6:22
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:44
xG 0.12–0.83 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Schenn11:40
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Streit – Colaiacovo2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Grossmann – MacDonald13:11
xG 0.52–0.99 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar10:26
xG 1.03–0.10 (91%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel6:23
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone10:21
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:58
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Cowen9:05
xG 0.97–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:00
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci3:13
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).