Sun, Mar 15, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 213 | 13 | 525 |
| PIT | 09 | 019 | 115 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21DETRiley SheahanAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Brendan Smith · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:06DETTeemu PulkkinenGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Marek Zidlicky · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:39DETMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 7:44DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 3:02DETTeemu PulkkinenAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Riley Sheahan · Slap, 0.10 xG5–0
- P3 9:10PITDavid PerronAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 0:33DETKyle Quincey: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:33PITDavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:24PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:18PITPaul Martin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:18DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:18PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:48PITBrandon Sutter: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00PITChris Kunitz: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00PITChris Kunitz: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:13DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:35PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:35PITKris Letang: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:35PITKris Letang: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 14:05DETHenrik Zetterberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:44DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:44PITSteve Downie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:44DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:37PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:48DETHenrik Zetterberg: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:28
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Pulkkinen – Jurco7:14
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening9:50
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Datsyuk – Tatar10:57
xG 0.21–0.75 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Smith11:52
xG 0.12–0.12 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:18
xG 0.38–0.40 (48%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:57
xG 0.21–0.86 (19%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Comeau – Sutter7:48
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron9:47
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Comeau – Winnik – Sutter2:13
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Downie – Spaling – Bennett5:07
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Lovejoy9:23
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Cole2:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Cole3:51
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).