Mon, Mar 16, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 112 | 110 | 234 |
| TBL | 214 | 111 | 19 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:58TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:45TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 11:10MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 0:34MTLPA ParenteauAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:55TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:21TBLBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:21TBLBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:29MTLGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:09TBLMike Angelidis: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:09MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:04MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:04TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:39MTLBrandon Prust: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:40MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:40TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 10:31TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51MTLJacob de la Rose: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:08TBLMike Angelidis: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:08MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:58TBLRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:38MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose7:39
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Pacioretty5:19
xG 0.02–0.07 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk6:19
xG 0.20–0.30 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Galchenyuk4:01
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin2:10
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Emelin – Pateryn9:59
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Petry11:25
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Drouin9:39
xG 0.52–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov8:44
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos11:14
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Brown2:06
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Garrison14:24
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Barberio – Sustr11:56
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman15:16
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).