Mon, Mar 16, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 013 | 08 | 129 |
| EDM | 414 | 08 | 010 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:16EDMJordan EberlePPGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 8:08EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Nail Yakupov, Keith Aulie · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 10:59EDMAnton LanderPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P1 13:27TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:49EDMMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P1 6:37TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:46TOREric Brewer: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:37EDMAnton Lander: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 7:11EDMMatt Fraser: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:43EDMKeith Aulie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:58TORNazem Kadri: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 13:03EDMNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:11TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:11TORTyler Bozak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:11TORTyler Bozak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:11TORTyler Bozak: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:07TOREric Brewer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak8:04
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bozak – Panik5:45
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Komarov – Smith2:34
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Komarov – Smith – Panik4:55
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner5:20
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Brewer – MacWilliam2:48
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Rielly7:35
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHamilton – Lander – Fraser9:07
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:12
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Roy – Pouliot – Yakupov2:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer6:40
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom17:18
xG 0.94–0.23 (80%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Fayne – Marincin11:44
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Ference – Aulie9:02
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).