Tue, Mar 17, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 03 | 07 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 224 |
| BOS | 114 | 012 | 012 | 07 | 0 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:55BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Adam McQuaid, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 1:23BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 2. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 3. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 4. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
- 5. BOS Torey Krug stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:16BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:05BUFPhil Varone: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:57BOSCarl Soderberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:06BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Ellis – Dalpe – D'Amigo3:05
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Larsson13:44
xG 0.53–0.52 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Schaller10:13
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Gionta – Foligno – Varone14:08
xG 0.17–1.11 (13%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Zadorov11:22
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Strachan – Weber2:04
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Ristolainen18:49
xG 0.14–0.86 (14%)attempts 6–27goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:42
xG 0.84–0.23 (79%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith12:04
xG 0.68–0.21 (77%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Talbot – Paille9:36
xG 0.30–0.13 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak10:03
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug14:29
xG 0.65–0.07 (90%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski15:26
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton15:00
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).