Tue, Mar 17, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 116 | 07 | 13 | 233 |
| CAR | 19 | 06 | 018 | 03 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59CARElias LindholmAssists: Jeff Skinner, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 13:22OTTPatrick WierciochPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 4:46OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:44CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min
- P2 11:17CARBrad Malone: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:54CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:49OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:49CARRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:49OTTMike Hoffman: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:21CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:28CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:28OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Michalek – Turris – Stone11:05
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar13:09
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel6:12
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:34
xG 0.45–0.77 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci10:45
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:23
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch3:04
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Skinner – Lindholm6:30
xG 0.78–0.49 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Gerbe – Staal9:43
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone5:05
xG 0.17–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Semin – Skinner2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Murphy14:48
xG 1.02–0.55 (65%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk16:23
xG 0.97–0.70 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Bellemore – Jordan13:23
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).