Tue, Mar 17, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 117 | 116 | 240 |
| WPG | 310 | 18 | 14 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10WPGAdam LowryAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:39WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 13:01WPGAndrew LaddPPGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Michael Frolik · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 1:06SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 7:05WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Drew Stafford, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 9:12WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Drew Stafford, Mark Scheifele · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 17:35SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:23WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min
- P1 8:28SJSJustin Braun: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:54SJSMelker Karlsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:49SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Interference2 min
- P2 17:04WPGJim Slater: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:47WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:22WPGJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:22SJSJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:22SJSJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:09
xG 1.12–0.11 (91%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Scott – Smith – Goodrow6:40
xG 0.26–0.11 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Wingels – Hertl2:21
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Nieto – Tierney2:08
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:20
xG 0.83–0.40 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Dillon – Irwin14:53
xG 0.86–0.64 (57%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Hannan – Burns13:13
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSlater – Stempniak – Tlusty10:09
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele12:17
xG 0.53–0.50 (52%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – O'Dell6:57
xG 0.09–0.26 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Frolik – Lowry10:53
xG 0.18–1.08 (14%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Pardy12:17
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers13:48
xG 0.64–0.92 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 3–2
- Stuart – Trouba15:41
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).