Tue, Mar 17, 2015·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 015 | 114 | 139 |
| CHI | 216 | 15 | 19 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:04CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Johnny Oduya · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 13:55CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 0:57CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 5:29NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Frans Nielsen · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:30CHIAndrew Shaw: Head butting5 min
- P2 5:30CHIAndrew Shaw: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:07CHIMarian Hossa: Holding2 min
- P3 11:22NYIJohn Tavares: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome9:56
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:54
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kennedy – Kulemin8:00
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares13:21
xG 0.13–0.88 (13%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Donovan10:36
xG 1.23–0.17 (88%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic2:37
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic16:40
xG 0.49–0.88 (36%)attempts 17–21goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews13:43
xG 1.19–0.26 (82%)attempts 22–8goals 4–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw5:50
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Bickell – Versteeg9:00
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Vermette – Saad – Teravainen10:34
xG 0.23–0.83 (22%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:56
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Oduya – Seabrook2:21
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Timonen – Rozsival2:18
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).