Wed, Mar 18, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Chicago Blackhawks 1, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 07 | 117 | 131 |
| NYR | 08 | 07 | 010 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:19CHIBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Andrew Desjardins · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:38NYRKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:02NYRKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11CHIAndrew Desjardins: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:56CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Saad – Teravainen10:30
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Shaw8:16
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews14:02
xG 0.75–0.91 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Richards – Bickell – Desjardins9:39
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Rundblad12:48
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook4:48
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson3:56
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Fast8:41
xG 0.95–0.62 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Hagelin – Miller8:54
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider11:44
xG 0.78–0.88 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Hayes13:23
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi4:48
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle5:25
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Staal – McDonagh9:34
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).