Thu, Mar 19, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 4, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 214 | 211 | 010 | 435 |
| OTT | 214 | 211 | 27 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Milan Michalek, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 0:59BOSCarl SoderbergAssists: Loui Eriksson, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 4:04BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Milan Lucic, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 15:03OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 3:11OTTDavid LegwandAssists: Erik Condra, Alex Chiasson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 11:42BOSRyan SpoonerPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 11:57OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 13:17BOSTorey KrugAssists: Carl Soderberg, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 11:28OTTBobby RyanGWGAssists: Cody Ceci, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–5
- P3 19:41OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Mark Stone, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.65 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:56OTTEric Gryba: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:52BOSTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:33OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:12OTTEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:58BOSDennis Seidenberg: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Talbot – Bergeron – Marchand4:43
xG 0.05–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak7:16
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Campbell – Talbot – Paille5:23
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:55
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – McQuaid3:34
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug8:09
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Bartkowski5:10
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Turris – Stone12:24
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar9:53
xG 0.63–0.32 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Legwand – Hoffman – Chiasson2:52
xG 0.27–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad7:07
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson16:32
xG 1.47–0.34 (81%)attempts 23–10goals 3–0
- Methot – Ceci2:22
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci13:55
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).