Thu, Mar 19, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 18 | 013 | 02 | 1 | 133 |
| WPG | 09 | 012 | 19 | 04 | 2 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:08STLDavid BackesAssists: Paul Stastny, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 13:16WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Myers, Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. WPG Drew Stafford scored
- 4. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 5. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 6. STL Alexander Steen stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:47WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:18STLSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:18STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:18WPGJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:05WPGAdam Lowry: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:29STLRyan Reaves: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 17:14WPGJim Slater: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00WPGAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Lehtera – Jaskin2:51
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:27
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie11:53
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Ott – Porter – Reaves5:14
xG 0.00–0.08 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo16:00
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Jackman – Bortuzzo11:30
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Michalek – Bouwmeester15:38
xG 0.50–0.65 (43%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Scheifele13:33
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – O'Dell3:15
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Slater – Stempniak – Tlusty10:41
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Frolik – Lowry13:50
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba14:00
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Harrison – Pardy10:22
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers16:37
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).