Thu, Mar 19, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 110 | 015 | 132 |
| DAL | 011 | 211 | 04 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:14DALBrett RitchieAssists: Jamie Benn, Shawn Horcoff · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 3:37DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 13:26PITKris LetangPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:57DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P1 13:26PITBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P1 16:11DALJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:51DALCurtis McKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:51PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:51PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:51DALCurtis McKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:26PITBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:42PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:18DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00PITSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:17DALJyrki Jokipakka: Holding2 min
- P3 12:43DALJohn Klingberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:43PITDavid Perron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Spaling – Perron10:27
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Comeau – Crosby10:52
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Bennett2:36
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Winnik – Downie – Ebbett6:47
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang13:55
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Cole10:18
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Lovejoy10:26
xG 0.17–0.85 (17%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie6:11
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin11:45
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Roussel7:16
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Garbutt6:47
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Jokipakka12:33
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Klingberg12:34
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Demers – Benn10:32
xG 0.08–0.45 (16%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).