Fri, Mar 20, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 210 | 112 | 327 |
| BUF | 07 | 013 | 19 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:08NJDSteve BernierAssists: Scott Gomez, Adam Henrique · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:53NJDSteve BernierGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 8:14NJDJordin TootooUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 11:41BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:11NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P1 19:35NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:43NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:20BUFJohan Larsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:50NJDJacob Josefson: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:16BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Varone won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Henrique11:02
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Gionta10:06
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Havlat – Tootoo – Zajac12:07
xG 0.46–0.83 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Gelinas10:30
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson11:23
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Merrill – Severson13:50
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Dalpe – D'Amigo5:23
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Larsson12:28
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Grigorenko4:03
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – D'Amigo – Grigorenko2:17
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Ristolainen17:03
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Benoit – Strachan11:43
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Meszaros – Zadorov16:55
xG 0.37–0.64 (37%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).