Fri, Mar 20, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 012 | 25 | 00 | 224 |
| ANA | 114 | 011 | 113 | 12 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37ANAJiri SekacAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 5:28COLJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Duchene, Jan Hejda · Slap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 7:19COLRyan O'ReillySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 9:04ANARickard RakellAssists: Simon Despres, Jiri Sekac · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 1:25ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:36ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:58COLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:55COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:26COLAlex Tanguay: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Cliche – Everberg7:10
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog16:28
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Duchene15:37
xG 0.71–0.86 (45%)attempts 14–24goals 1–1
- Brière – Caron – Hamilton4:45
xG 0.00–0.41 (1%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Redmond11:13
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Stuart – Barrie2:06
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hejda – Barrie2:29
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Rakell – Sekac11:03
xG 0.62–0.12 (83%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon10:55
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg13:03
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri12:07
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Fowler15:17
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm15:11
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Despres14:29
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).