Sat, Mar 21, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 213 | 110 | 329 |
| MIN | 211 | 311 | 16 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47MINChris StewartUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:14MINThomas VanekAssists: Justin Fontaine, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 3:39MINZach PariseAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–3
- P2 4:05MINJonas BrodinGWGAssists: Justin Fontaine, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.02 xG0–4
- P2 10:02STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P2 11:41STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jay Bouwmeester · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–4
- P2 16:11MINJustin FontaineAssists: Charlie Coyle, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 10:48MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Mathew Dumba · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 14:07STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Alexander Steen, David Backes · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:24MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:24STLT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:40MINThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:48STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
- P3 5:21STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:05STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:12MINChris Stewart: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz6:07
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie9:25
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin6:28
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Berglund – Lehtera – Jaskin4:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo3:56
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Jackman – Michalek4:16
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo3:05
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund11:23
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Koivu – Stewart – Niederreiter9:49
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Bergenheim – Brodziak – Haula9:46
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine8:44
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin11:57
xG 0.95–0.68 (58%)attempts 15–20goals 4–1
- Leopold – Dumba15:29
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon14:29
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).