Sat, Mar 21, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 16 | 08 | 19 | 13 | 326 |
| CGY | 112 | 112 | 014 | 02 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:13CBJRene BourqueAssists: Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 2:44CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 4:21CBJArtem AnisimovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 4:01CBJRene BourqueGWGAssists: Kevin Connauton, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:05CBJJared Boll: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:59CBJCody Goloubef: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:01CBJCorey Tropp: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:01CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:03CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:03CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:03CGYTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:03CGYDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:08CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Embellishment2 min
- P3 5:08CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:35CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:42CBJCam Atkinson: Interference2 min
- P3 16:57CBJRene Bourque: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Dano11:15
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Morin – Jenner9:45
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp4:37
xG 0.01–0.15 (5%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Atkinson – Johansen11:05
xG 0.46–0.75 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Goloubef – Connauton11:17
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard19:13
xG 0.70–1.16 (38%)attempts 21–24goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Prout18:42
xG 0.59–1.40 (30%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Colborne – Granlund10:05
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Stajan – Bollig – Ferland5:24
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan14:18
xG 0.77–0.42 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma10:27
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell16:34
xG 1.65–0.86 (66%)attempts 28–16goals 1–1
- Schlemko – Diaz11:08
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie15:30
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).