Sat, Mar 21, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vancouver Canucks 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 113 | 316 | 442 |
| LAK | 011 | 17 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:24LAKMarian GaborikPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 14:54VANNick BoninoAssists: Radim Vrbata, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 4:31VANRadim VrbataPPGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 19:04VANDaniel SedinENUnassisted · Slap, 0.47 xG3–1
- P3 19:59VANBo HorvatENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.47 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:25LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:17VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55VANHenrik Sedin: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:55LAKJonathan Quick: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:02LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:05LAKTyler Toffoli: Boarding5 min
- P3 4:05LAKTyler Toffoli: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:46VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:16VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Horvat – Kenins6:48
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Matthias – Vey6:55
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows10:22
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Higgins – Bonino11:47
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 7–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev16:10
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber12:54
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Sbisa12:50
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Williams – Lewis – Clifford8:16
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Nolan – Andreoff – Shore5:38
xG 0.11–0.29 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli8:38
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar11:44
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sekera – McNabb12:56
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Greene – Muzzin12:42
xG 0.31–0.67 (31%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Regehr – Doughty15:02
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).