Sat, Mar 21, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 214 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 329 |
| CAR | 18 | 05 | 117 | 00 | 0 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01CARElias LindholmAssists: Victor Rask, Danny Biega · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:39NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 12:59NYRJesper FastAssists: Kevin Hayes, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 14:27CARRyan MurphyPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
- 2. NYR Kevin Hayes stopped
- 3. CAR Riley Nash stopped
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 5. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:59CARPatrick Dwyer: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:36NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P2 4:05CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:35NYRCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Hayes – Fast11:13
xG 1.06–0.27 (80%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller11:56
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider12:50
xG 0.66–0.81 (45%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Sheppard8:43
xG 0.21–0.81 (21%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Yandle4:59
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal6:43
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Staal – McDonagh3:32
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Staal – Nestrasil13:49
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Rask – Lindholm12:38
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Semin – Nash – Skinner12:31
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Terry4:05
xG 0.10–0.99 (9%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk16:53
xG 1.11–0.64 (63%)attempts 29–8goals 0–0
- Bellemore – Murphy12:51
xG 0.84–0.39 (68%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Bellemore2:46
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).