Sat, Mar 21, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 0, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 08 | 011 | 028 |
| WPG | 16 | 18 | 110 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:46WPGMark StuartGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Drew Stafford · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 10:48WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 18:38WPGAdam LowryENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:43WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 5:51WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P2 13:15WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:15WSHCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:51WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:06WSHTroy Brouwer: Elbowing2 min
- P3 5:28WSHMichael Latta: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:59WPGJim Slater: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr8:23
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson7:26
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Glencross – Brouwer – Kuznetsov8:47
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:17
xG 0.30–0.83 (27%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt11:20
xG 1.48–0.34 (81%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner15:37
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson12:13
xG 0.15–0.67 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Scheifele11:15
xG 0.78–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Ladd – Frolik – Lowry9:37
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – O'Dell4:41
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Halischuk2:15
xG 0.00–0.27 (1%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Trouba17:11
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Harrison – Pardy10:07
xG 0.21–0.70 (23%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers16:04
xG 0.66–1.19 (36%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).