Sat, Mar 21, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 07 | 011 | 024 |
| NSH | 017 | 113 | 213 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:52NSHTaylor BeckPPGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Matt Cullen · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 5:49NSHCraig SmithAssists: Ryan Ellis, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 15:01NSHMike FisherAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:31NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P1 17:50NSHCraig Smith: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:48BUFJohan Larsson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 19:57NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Larsson15:07
xG 1.08–0.71 (60%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Hodgson – D'Amigo – Grigorenko7:11
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Foligno – Grigorenko2:18
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ellis – Dalpe – Deslauriers8:58
xG 0.26–0.77 (25%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Meszaros3:50
xG 0.72–0.14 (84%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Strachan – Zadorov3:18
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Ristolainen19:08
xG 0.77–0.98 (44%)attempts 11–23goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Bourque – Arvidsson10:31
xG 0.92–0.11 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Smith8:10
xG 0.85–0.13 (86%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Jarnkrok – Forsberg8:29
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Santorelli – Beck8:09
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm16:42
xG 1.73–0.26 (87%)attempts 29–6goals 2–0
- Franson – Jones14:21
xG 0.72–0.60 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi20:26
xG 1.13–1.16 (49%)attempts 29–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).