Sat, Mar 21, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 012 | 012 | 033 |
| DAL | 210 | 012 | 27 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:36DALPatrick EavesGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jyrki Jokipakka · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:02DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P3 6:02DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 9:32DALJason SpezzaAssists: Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:17DALJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:28DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:24CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:08CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:59CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:13DALJordie Benn: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Saad – Teravainen6:33
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews12:08
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Bickell – Versteeg8:40
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Saad4:44
xG 0.09–0.16 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson7:04
xG 0.83–0.11 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson9:27
xG 0.20–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Seabrook8:23
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Eaves9:33
xG 0.63–0.05 (93%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin12:11
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel9:13
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie9:57
xG 0.29–0.73 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Jokipakka16:14
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Demers – Benn13:35
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Klingberg15:12
xG 0.40–1.20 (25%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).