Sat, Mar 21, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 311 | 07 | 110 | 03 | 431 |
| EDM | 311 | 111 | 09 | 13 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:25PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:00PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 14:17PHIRyan WhiteAssists: Zac Rinaldo · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P1 16:15EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Derek Roy · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P1 19:29EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Boyd Gordon, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 1:11EDMJordan EberleAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 0:46PHIMichael RafflAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 2:46EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:39PHINicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:08EDMTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P1 10:53EDMAndrew Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:46EDMBen Scrivens: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:44PHINicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P2 17:09PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:08EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:33PHIWayne Simmonds: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Lander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl11:16
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- White – Rinaldo – Cousins6:30
xG 0.26–0.23 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier9:36
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Schenn – Bellemare7:56
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Colaiacovo4:10
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Del Zotto5:29
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – MacDonald8:30
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:15
xG 0.67–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer9:02
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov9:26
xG 0.10–0.21 (31%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Lander – Hall – Miller8:43
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom15:11
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Ference – Marincin11:49
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Nikitin – Schultz2:23
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).