Sun, Mar 22, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 111 | 05 | 00 | 124 |
| DET | 010 | 05 | 18 | 12 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:38STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 0:24DETErik ColeAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- OT 0:24DETJustin AbdelkaderPPGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.51 xG1–2
Penalties (22)
- P1 2:03STLChris Butler: Holding2 min
- P1 2:10DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:32STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:15STLJori Lehtera: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:59DETRiley Sheahan: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:07DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:57DETLuke Glendening: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:55STLPetteri Lindbohm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:55STLPetteri Lindbohm: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:55DETDrew Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:55DETDrew Miller: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:08STLT.J. Oshie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:08DETGustav Nyquist: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:38STLChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38DETTomas Tatar: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38STLChris Butler: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:38DETTomas Tatar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:56STLZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:39STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:09
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Ott – Reaves6:34
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Berglund5:50
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Jaskin6:12
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo2:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Michalek – Bouwmeester12:57
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Jackman – Lindbohm6:28
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCole – Zetterberg – Abdelkader7:49
xG 0.63–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Andersson – Nyquist – Pulkkinen3:20
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening7:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Helm – Tatar – Sheahan7:47
xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson11:56
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:58
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Smith11:26
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).