Mon, Mar 23, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Los Angeles Kings 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 216 | 05 | 112 | 333 |
| NJD | 03 | 15 | 012 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44LAKAndrej SekeraAssists: Anze Kopitar, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:22LAKTyler ToffoliPPGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 2:12NJDScott GomezAssists: Eric Gelinas, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 5:05LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Jake Muzzin, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:33NJDEric Gelinas: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:33LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:35NJDStephen Gionta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:07NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference2 min
- P3 2:04LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:24NJDEric Gelinas: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli10:48
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Nolan – Shore7:49
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Lewis – Clifford7:12
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – Shore2:25
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty17:28
xG 1.16–0.37 (76%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Regehr – Sekera13:43
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Greene – Martinez12:10
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Gionta – Henrique8:11
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Elias – Zubrus – Henrique2:31
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Josefson – Matteau2:16
xG 0.09–0.09 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Josefson – Matteau7:30
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson2:38
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson15:14
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Merrill – Severson11:20
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).