Mon, Mar 23, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 08 | 110 | 227 |
| CGY | 28 | 010 | 18 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18CGYDavid JonesAssists: Lance Bouma, Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:46COLAlex TanguayAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 19:44CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Dennis Wideman, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 8:40CGYLance BoumaGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, David Jones · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 10:46COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zach Redmond · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:31CGYJosh Jooris: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:49COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:25CGYJoe Colborne: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:37CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Duchene13:52
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Brière – Caron – Hishon6:05
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg9:12
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:53
xG 0.53–0.79 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie12:58
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Hejda – Redmond11:09
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Stuart – Holden13:11
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Raymond – Bollig7:38
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Bouma – Granlund10:08
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Backlund – Colborne – Jooris9:55
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan14:24
xG 0.48–0.94 (34%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Diaz9:06
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie19:06
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Wideman – Russell18:32
xG 0.76–0.93 (45%)attempts 22–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).