Tue, Mar 24, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Minnesota Wild 2, New York Islanders 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 012 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 232 |
| NYI | 016 | 112 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:36NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P3 11:45MINZach PariseAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. MIN Zach Parise scored
- 3. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 4. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (2)
- P2 15:32NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:36MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise5:34
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Bergenheim – Schroeder – Haula6:00
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Stewart – Granlund – Niederreiter4:09
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Haula – Fontaine2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba2:52
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Leopold – Dumba10:03
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon17:28
xG 0.84–0.81 (51%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Kennedy – Kulemin12:25
xG 0.79–0.38 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares16:03
xG 1.13–0.90 (56%)attempts 22–19goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:24
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome10:51
xG 1.05–1.05 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – de Haan13:16
xG 1.08–0.82 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic18:25
xG 0.96–0.88 (52%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy20:15
xG 1.09–1.06 (51%)attempts 28–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).