Tue, Mar 24, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Los Angeles Kings 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 117 | 114 | 24 | 435 |
| NYR | 112 | 09 | 115 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:38LAKRobyn RegehrAssists: Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 4:35LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 1:05LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Dwight King · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 5:28LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Anze Kopitar, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 16:16NYRKevin HayesAssists: Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:10NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:07LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:17NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Williams – Kopitar12:03
xG 1.39–0.52 (73%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Carter – King – Toffoli13:11
xG 0.82–0.54 (60%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Brown – Lewis – Shore10:34
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Clifford – Nolan9:46
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Sekera21:35
xG 1.10–0.50 (69%)attempts 25–18goals 2–1
- Greene – Martinez10:08
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:05
xG 1.08–0.88 (55%)attempts 14–19goals 2–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Hagelin – Hayes2:35
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
- Nash – Stepan – Fast4:33
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller12:35
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
- Glass – Sheppard – Kreider3:08
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Staal3:54
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:00
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Yandle10:53
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).