Tue, Mar 24, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 214 | 012 | 12 | 335 |
| PIT | 03 | 212 | 011 | 00 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:41PITBlake ComeauAssists: Daniel Winnik, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 8:58PITSteve DownieAssists: Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 14:52STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: T.J. Oshie, Barret Jackman · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 17:24STLMarcel GocAssists: Ryan Reaves, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 0:35STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Zbynek Michalek, David Backes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:31STLPaul Stastny: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:32STLZbynek Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32PITDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:00STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:00PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:54STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:00STLT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:13
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Porter – Stastny – Berglund7:32
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Ott – Goc – Reaves3:38
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Goc – Porter – Reaves2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Bortuzzo13:37
xG 1.12–0.05 (95%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Michalek – Bouwmeester15:58
xG 1.57–0.70 (69%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Lindbohm17:54
xG 0.07–1.80 (4%)attempts 9–25goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Comeau – Sutter11:06
xG 1.27–0.69 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Winnik – Crosby – Perron15:39
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Bennett2:22
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Downie – Spaling – Bennett2:43
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Pouliot13:56
xG 1.67–0.06 (97%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Cole11:45
xG 0.54–1.02 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Martin – Letang15:45
xG 0.43–0.98 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).