Tue, Mar 24, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Anaheim Ducks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 212 | 114 | 014 | 340 |
| CBJ | 110 | 312 | 15 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:21ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Nate Thompson · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 15:35CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Jack Johnson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 7:41CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.47 xG2–2
- P2 10:05ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Corey Perry, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 10:37CBJScott HartnellAssists: William Karlsson, Marko Dano · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 11:48CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Jeremy Morin, Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 19:23CBJScott HartnellENAssists: Cam Atkinson, David Savard · Wrap-around, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:13CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:57CBJArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:04ANASimon Despres: Holding2 min
- P1 15:08ANAKyle Palmieri: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:01CBJDavid Savard: Charging2 min
- P1 18:13ANAJames Wisniewski: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:32CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:32ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:55CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:34ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:34CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:18CBJDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18ANACorey Perry: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:33CBJKevin Connauton: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Beleskey – Palmieri9:43
xG 0.92–0.10 (91%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell3:01
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:35
xG 0.17–0.33 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Rakell – Sekac5:13
xG 0.20–0.60 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen9:42
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Vatanen2:19
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Despres12:04
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Johansen – Jenner10:36
xG 0.78–0.19 (81%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Anisimov – Morin8:08
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp5:35
xG 0.02–0.25 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Dano9:14
xG 0.48–0.75 (39%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard17:53
xG 1.10–0.80 (58%)attempts 12–18goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Prout12:38
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Connauton12:05
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).