Tue, Mar 24, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 28 | 09 | 00 | 229 |
| NSH | 114 | 08 | 18 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10NSHMattias EkholmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 2:28MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:42MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: PA Parenteau, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 7:56NSHRyan EllisAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 1:54NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:45MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 9:42MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:19NSHShea Weber: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:38MTLGreg Pateryn: Holding2 min
- OT 1:09MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:36
xG 1.04–0.25 (80%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:33
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Prust – Mitchell – Weise2:33
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Prust – Mitchell – Smith-Pelly6:25
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Beaulieu12:07
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Markov – Subban18:43
xG 0.54–0.68 (44%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Emelin – Petry16:37
xG 0.61–0.96 (39%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Wilson – Forsberg6:42
xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Santorelli – Beck9:13
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Bourque5:30
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Forsberg – Arvidsson5:25
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Ellis13:09
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi17:52
xG 0.51–0.84 (38%)attempts 16–23goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Jones16:25
xG 0.42–1.03 (29%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).