Tue, Mar 24, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 112 | 06 | 228 |
| VAN | 012 | 312 | 26 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17WPGJiri TlustyAssists: Eric O'Dell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:07WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Drew Stafford, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–0
- P2 10:57VANChris HigginsAssists: Radim Vrbata, Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:29VANYannick WeberPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 19:00VANRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 19:28VANHenrik SedinENAssists: Daniel Sedin · Backhand, 0.61 xG2–4
- P3 19:53VANRadim VrbataENAssists: Chris Higgins, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:38VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:06WPGJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:44VANYannick Weber: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Scheifele14:09
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – O'Dell5:22
xG 0.02–0.02 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Frolik – Lowry14:51
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Slater – Stempniak – Tlusty9:40
xG 0.07–0.55 (12%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba16:12
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Enstrom – Myers20:31
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Harrison – Pardy10:39
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Higgins – Bonino9:35
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:38
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins10:36
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Matthias – Vey8:58
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Sbisa15:36
xG 0.76–0.70 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev16:45
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber16:16
xG 0.38–0.91 (29%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).