Thu, Mar 26, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 18 | 215 | 337 |
| NYI | 05 | 116 | 16 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:31NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:37LAKNicholas ShoreAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:55LAKTyler ToffoliSHAssists: Jeff Carter, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P3 3:31NYIJohnny BoychukPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 15:37LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Alec Martinez · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:47NYINick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:13NYITravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:58LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P3 1:43LAKMatt Greene: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Williams – Kopitar13:37
xG 1.57–0.34 (82%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli11:50
xG 0.92–0.17 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Richards – Clifford – Nolan7:53
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – Shore9:31
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty20:20
xG 1.41–0.42 (77%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez11:46
xG 0.81–0.41 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Regehr – Sekera15:11
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome8:42
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Lee2:05
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kennedy – Kulemin10:23
xG 0.26–0.33 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:12
xG 0.33–0.86 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Leddy18:03
xG 0.69–0.89 (44%)attempts 17–25goals 0–1
- Strait – de Haan13:09
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic18:16
xG 0.24–1.82 (11%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).