Thu, Mar 26, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 112 | 112 | 01 | 231 |
| WSH | 18 | 110 | 05 | 11 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Matt Niskanen, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:35WSHEric FehrUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 14:41NJDTravis ZajacSHAssists: Patrik Elias, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P3 19:30NJDSteve BernierAssists: Scott Gomez, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 1:13WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:45WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:45NJDMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:08NJDJon Merrill: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 2:49NJDJacob Josefson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:49WSHBrooks Orpik: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:03WSHMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min
- P3 14:10WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:10NJDJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac11:33
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Elias – Gionta – Henrique9:18
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Bernier – Boucher10:05
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Ruutu – Josefson8:32
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson17:23
xG 1.17–0.36 (77%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Merrill – Severson14:17
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Fraser – Gelinas8:29
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Fehr – Wilson9:21
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Glencross – Brouwer – Kuznetsov9:22
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Latta9:17
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:36
xG 0.13–1.02 (11%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Carlson17:52
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner14:44
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gleason – Green12:35
xG 0.14–0.44 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).