Thu, Mar 26, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 09 | 16 | 229 |
| CAR | 27 | 28 | 113 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54PITBrandon SutterAssists: Sidney Crosby, Ben Lovejoy · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 5:05CAREric StaalAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 8:27CARRyan MurphyAssists: Brad Malone, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 11:38CARJay McClementGWGAssists: Brad Malone, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 14:56CARAlexander SeminAssists: Riley Nash, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 13:14CARAndrej NestrasilPPAssists: Eric Staal, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 15:55PITIan ColeAssists: Craig Adams, Beau Bennett · Snap, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:05CARBrad Malone: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:05PITMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:15CARBrad Malone: Interference2 min
- P1 18:53CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:10PITBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:27CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:59PITNick Spaling: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:48PITDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:50PITBeau Bennett: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Winnik – Crosby4:43
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Comeau – Sutter6:46
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Spaling4:28
xG 0.15–0.10 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – Crosby – Perron6:28
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Cole10:54
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang15:54
xG 0.92–0.79 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Pouliot15:53
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Gerbe – Staal12:55
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – Nestrasil6:34
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Semin – Terry – Nash9:11
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:27
xG 0.20–0.29 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk16:19
xG 1.00–0.76 (57%)attempts 18–18goals 2–0
- Jordan – Murphy14:51
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Liles – Biega13:33
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).