Thu, Mar 26, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 311 | 18 | 428 |
| TOR | 09 | 07 | 19 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:23FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:53FLASteven KampferGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 14:34FLABrandon PirriAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 9:13TORSam CarrickAssists: Morgan Rielly, Joakim Lindstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:24FLABrandon PirriENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:56FLAAleksander Barkov: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 14:59FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59TORAndrew MacWilliam: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59TORLeo Komarov: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53FLASteven Kampfer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:58FLADave Bolland: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:52TORRichard Panik: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:10TORPhil Kessel: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Jokinen – Bolland11:18
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Upshall6:55
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:52
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck13:30
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Kulikov15:00
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad17:11
xG 0.66–0.65 (50%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Petrovic15:34
xG 0.30–0.60 (34%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:49
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 22–16goals 0–2
- Lindstrom – Carrick – Bailey8:48
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Komarov – Panik – Kozun9:31
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Lupul – Booth – McKegg10:46
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Phaneuf15:04
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Gardiner – Rielly17:49
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Brewer – MacWilliam2:35
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).