Thu, Mar 26, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 6, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 310 | 07 | 313 | 630 |
| DET | 212 | 012 | 210 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 9:14SJSMatt NietoAssists: Chris Tierney, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 10:04DETTomas JurcoAssists: Drew Miller, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–1
- P1 11:44DETTomas TatarAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 16:02SJSChris TierneyAssists: Tommy Wingels, Mirco Mueller · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 0:31SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 3:39DETStephen WeissAssists: Teemu Pulkkinen, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 4:56SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Brent Burns · Snap, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 7:27DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.33 xG5–4
- P3 18:43SJSPatrick MarleauENAssists: Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.66 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:41SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:56SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
- P2 1:03SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:50DETMarek Zidlicky: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:49SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:31SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:31DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Hertl9:59
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Tarasov – Goodrow4:09
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney8:55
xG 0.08–0.62 (12%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson13:03
xG 0.25–1.22 (17%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Braun16:11
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Burns – Dillon2:18
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Mueller9:57
xG 0.11–0.73 (13%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:22
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen5:25
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening7:27
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Helm – Tatar – Sheahan12:31
xG 0.23–0.23 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser16:00
xG 1.21–0.33 (79%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:04
xG 0.47–0.20 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Zidlicky – Smith12:52
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).