Thu, Mar 26, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 018 | 313 | 17 | 438 |
| VAN | 05 | 011 | 118 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:23COLJarome IginlaAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 10:17COLAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Zach Redmond, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 12:56COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 0:15VANYannick WeberPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:00COLJohn MitchellENAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:18VANAlexander Edler: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 6:59VANChris Tanev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:41COLJan Hejda: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:31VANRadim Vrbata: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:25VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:25COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:28VANRonalds Kenins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50COLJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:27COLJarome Iginla: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:53COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:09VANLinden Vey: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog7:41
xG 0.76–0.09 (90%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg7:50
xG 0.63–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Caron – Hishon – Hamilton4:43
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Duchene11:56
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Redmond7:16
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie9:33
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Hejda – Barrie3:58
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Higgins – Bonino5:28
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins7:01
xG 0.16–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Dorsett – Matthias – Vey9:52
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:24
xG 0.15–0.17 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Tanev2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa3:02
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Sbisa12:03
xG 0.38–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).