Fri, Mar 27, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 09 | 110 | 225 |
| MIN | 113 | 015 | 38 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52CGYJosh JoorisAssists: Matt Stajan, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:28MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- P3 3:36MINThomas VanekAssists: Justin Fontaine, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 6:59MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Chris Stewart, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 11:46MINZach PariseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 15:17CGYMarkus GranlundAssists: Mason Raymond, Paul Byron · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:43CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:12MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P3 8:16MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Byron – Granlund5:07
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Stajan – Jones – Colborne3:28
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Colborne – Jooris6:29
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Byron – Gaudreau – Monahan2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Diaz12:50
xG 0.59–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Russell – Brodie2:18
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell15:39
xG 0.63–1.41 (31%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund14:09
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine10:37
xG 1.03–0.28 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Bergenheim – Schroeder – Haula5:44
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Stewart – Niederreiter15:04
xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Dumba8:53
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin19:13
xG 1.04–0.74 (58%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba4:06
xG 0.14–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).