Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Nashville Predators 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 314 | 19 | 04 | 427 |
| WSH | 011 | 27 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Anton Volchenkov · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:29NSHMike FisherAssists: Filip Forsberg, Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P1 14:47NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 0:19WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 7:32WSHTroy BrouwerSHAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 11:56NSHMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Craig Smith · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 0:20WSHMike GreenAssists: Matt Niskanen, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:48NSHCody Franson: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:53NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:19WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:43WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 17:48WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 17:48NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:48WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:08NSHTaylor Beck: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:08WSHAlex Ovechkin: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:08NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Santorelli – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson9:00
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Beck – Bourque10:59
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Fisher – Stalberg – Wilson10:59
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:23
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Ekholm12:42
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Jones17:30
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Ellis11:32
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Latta – Wilson4:22
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Glencross – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:02
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:07
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson4:43
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Green13:55
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson15:19
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
- Niskanen – Alzner13:30
xG 0.37–0.96 (28%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).