Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Anaheim Ducks 3, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 27 | 07 | 324 |
| NYI | 19 | 09 | 113 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23ANARickard RakellAssists: Patrick Maroon · Tip-in, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 17:08NYILubomir VisnovskyAssists: Ryan Strome, Thomas Hickey · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 1:46ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Matt Beleskey, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 15:11ANAAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 14:24NYICasey CizikasUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:47ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:16ANAMatt Beleskey: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:22ANACam Fowler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:50ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Silfverberg – Rakell10:55
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri11:05
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Wagner6:57
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
- Getzlaf – Perry – Sekac13:04
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Despres16:17
xG 1.06–0.91 (54%)attempts 22–16goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Fowler17:18
xG 0.59–0.79 (43%)attempts 10–22goals 2–0
- Stoner – Vatanen14:57
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Kulemin10:17
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Nelson – Strome11:54
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:07
xG 0.43–0.31 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:39
xG 0.78–1.13 (41%)attempts 15–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey12:21
xG 0.47–0.18 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:18
xG 1.10–0.81 (57%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Strait – Hamonic14:49
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).