Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 215 | 07 | 017 | 05 | 2 | 344 |
| PHI | 17 | 05 | 16 | 00 | 1 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38SJSMatt IrwinAssists: Chris Tierney, Tommy Wingels · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:44PHIMichael RafflAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.34 xG1–1
- P1 16:45SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 8:37PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
- 2. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 6. SJS Melker Karlsson scored
- 7. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 8. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 9. PHI Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 10. SJS Brent Burns scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:26PHINick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:06PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:45SJSMatt Nieto: Interference2 min
- P2 13:57PHIRyan White: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:00SJSScott Hannan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:37PHIOliver Lauridsen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:37SJSJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:43SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:30PHIBrayden Schenn: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Nieto – Tierney11:21
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:13
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Hertl10:30
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Scott – Smith – Goodrow6:50
xG 0.08–0.27 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon7:45
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Dillon – Irwin5:25
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Hannan – Burns10:33
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl8:42
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- White – Rinaldo – Cousins5:41
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare8:16
xG 0.04–0.48 (7%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Read – Couturier11:58
xG 0.04–0.87 (4%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauridsen – Alt6:33
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Grossmann – Manning16:22
xG 0.76–0.74 (51%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Manning2:15
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).