Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 07 | 09 | 023 |
| DET | 08 | 39 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:25DETJoakim AnderssonGWGAssists: Kyle Quincey, Stephen Weiss · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 7:19DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:19DETGustav NyquistAssists: Kyle Quincey · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 18:21DETLuke GlendeningENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG0–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:43DETJustin Abdelkader: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:05TBLBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:04TBLAndrej Sustr: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:56DETJoakim Andersson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:35DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 17:21DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:36DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:36TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:36DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:04TBLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:24TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:21DETKyle Quincey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:21TBLJonathan Drouin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:58DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov8:15
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos5:46
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Paquette6:55
xG 0.03–0.46 (7%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Hedman2:48
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Nesterov2:44
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Sustr2:04
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:31
xG 0.64–0.08 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen5:10
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening7:28
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar11:47
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Smith11:00
xG 0.96–0.29 (77%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser12:22
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson9:51
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).