Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 26 | 08 | 00 | 223 |
| MTL | 18 | 19 | 05 | 13 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:37MTLLars EllerAssists: Jeff Petry, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:09FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:11FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:35MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 2:59MTLMax PaciorettyPPGWGAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:36FLAJimmy Hayes: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:14FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:50MTLNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:50FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:14MTLDavid Desharnais: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:39FLADave Bolland: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:52FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Pirri – Trocheck12:58
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bolland12:46
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall6:43
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov14:49
xG 0.65–0.81 (44%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:10
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson17:30
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Petrovic16:45
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Flynn – de la Rose12:46
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Prust – Mitchell – Weise6:59
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk12:36
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:39
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban14:58
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Beaulieu13:08
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban2:48
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).