Sat, Mar 28, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 09 | 08 | 122 |
| CAR | 09 | 113 | 210 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 18:33CARChris TerryAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:09CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Ryan Murphy, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.54 xG1–2
- P3 4:58CARJustin FaulkAssists: Elias Lindholm, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:57NJDMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:17NJDAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:33CARJeff Skinner: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:46NJDMark Fraser: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Josefson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Ruutu – Josefson8:40
xG 0.37–0.28 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac12:24
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Elias – Gionta – Henrique12:00
xG 0.32–0.94 (26%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Gomez – Bernier – Boucher12:00
xG 0.09–0.89 (9%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Gelinas10:55
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Merrill – Larsson5:20
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Severson2:19
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Staal – Lindholm9:24
xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Nestrasil5:13
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Terry – Nash – Nestrasil4:18
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Terry – Skinner – Rask4:33
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Biega9:16
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Biega5:24
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Jordan – Murphy14:55
xG 1.00–0.71 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).