Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 013 | 212 | 15 | 440 |
| VAN | 19 | 110 | 115 | 02 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 11:18VANNick BoninoAssists: Radim Vrbata, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:10VANChris HigginsPPAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Chris Tanev · Deflected, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 7:55DALPatrick EavesAssists: Jason Spezza, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 14:25DALTyler SeguinAssists: Trevor Daley, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:48VANRadim VrbataPPAssists: Nick Bonino, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 4:13DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Trevor Daley, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:55DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:55VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:52VANDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:37DALAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16VANRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:16DALAlex Goligoski: Embellishment2 min
- P3 10:32DALJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P3 18:28DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin14:36
xG 0.78–0.05 (94%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Eaves9:39
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie11:10
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt6:15
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg16:39
xG 1.28–0.34 (79%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Demers – Jokipakka9:42
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Daley – Nemeth16:40
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Horvat – Kenins7:38
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Higgins – Bonino12:17
xG 0.58–0.50 (53%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat6:14
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Matthias – Vey5:21
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Weber2:44
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev16:05
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Weber14:39
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).