Sun, Mar 29, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 5, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 19 | 314 | 531 |
| NYR | 212 | 06 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Joel Ward, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 18:10NYRKevin HayesUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 19:11NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 11:17WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:41WSHJason ChimeraGWGAssists: Eric Fehr, Brooks Laich · Backhand, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 7:40WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Brooks Laich, Eric Fehr · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 17:37WSHMarcus JohanssonENAssists: Troy Brouwer, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:27WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P1 13:31NYRMats Zuccarello: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:55NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:44WSHTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:48WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:20NYRDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:46NYRDan Boyle: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Laich – Fehr7:58
xG 0.86–0.22 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Glencross – Latta – Wilson8:20
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson9:20
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Ward – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov7:57
xG 0.04–0.94 (4%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner12:32
xG 0.81–0.65 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Orpik – Green2:14
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gleason – Green11:55
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:06
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Fast7:26
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Moore – Glass – Sheppard8:56
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller5:02
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh9:52
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Boyle – Staal11:54
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle3:19
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).