Sun, Mar 29, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 014 | 214 | 29 | 437 |
| OTT | 09 | 07 | 211 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:46FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 15:49FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 4:43OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 13:57FLAJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 17:39OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Curtis Lazar, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 19:04FLADave BollandENAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:41FLAErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
- P1 1:47OTTAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
- P1 17:11FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:14OTTAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:09OTTEric Gryba: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:57FLADave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:57OTTMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
- P2 9:51OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:59OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:48FLABrandon Pirri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:57OTTErik Karlsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:57FLAWillie Mitchell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:43FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37FLATomas Kopecky: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:25
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Upshall – Bolland8:13
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck6:22
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Ekblad6:10
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson13:28
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic12:04
xG 0.23–0.68 (26%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hoffman – Chiasson4:21
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar5:58
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Pageau – Lazar4:48
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad3:59
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen7:14
xG 0.42–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:58
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- Cowen – Ceci2:32
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).