Sun, Mar 29, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Detroit Red Wings 4, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 39 | 111 | 05 | 425 |
| NYI | 310 | 212 | 05 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39DETTomas TatarAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 1:46DETDrew MillerAssists: Tomas Jurco, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 4:01NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 5:38NYIRyan StromeAssists: John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 9:02NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–3
- P1 9:54DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 0:16NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 3:57NYICal ClutterbuckSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–5
- P2 10:20DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.40 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:12DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:59DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:02NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:19NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:19DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:26DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:30NYIBrian Strait: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:30DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:25NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening7:30
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen5:33
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar11:24
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist12:31
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Smith13:46
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:15
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:05
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKulemin – Tavares – Strome11:56
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:30
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Lee – Nelson6:14
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:23
xG 0.04–0.38 (10%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey13:05
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Strait – Hamonic17:37
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:37
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).