Sun, Mar 29, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 27 | 08 | 05 | 0 | 232 |
| PIT | 29 | 011 | 013 | 00 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:04PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 6:44SJSBen SmithAssists: Justin Braun, Barclay Goodrow · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:38SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT David Perron scored
- 2. SJS Melker Karlsson stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. SJS Logan Couture stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:41SJSTaylor Fedun: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:06PITMaxim Lapierre: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:53PITBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:03PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:51SJSTommy Wingels: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:08PITNick Spaling: Holding2 min
- OT 1:11PITPatric Hornqvist: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestScott – Smith – Goodrow5:32
xG 0.16–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Hertl12:22
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson10:33
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney9:38
xG 0.08–0.54 (13%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Fedun14:30
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon15:57
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 19–22goals 1–0
- Hannan – Burns16:59
xG 0.36–0.87 (30%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Crosby – Hornqvist10:29
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling9:04
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron2:24
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Comeau11:55
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Cole8:07
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Lovejoy9:19
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Lovejoy4:37
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).